A logbook for curious waters

EXPLORATIONS / METABOLISM LAB

Food in.
A body in motion.

Explore how eating and activity can change body fat and weight over time. Change an input. Follow the consequences.

One scale.
Several moving parts.

Fat · lean tissue · glycogen · water
MVP 01

An educational adult model based on Hall et al. (2011). Assumes a stable starting weight. Not for pregnancy, breastfeeding, children, or modeling medical conditions.

How this works ↓
Example adult · replace these inputs with your own assumptions.

01 / STARTING POINT

The body before the change

lb
in
years
%
Starting maintenance 2,698 kcal/dayEstimated · edit assumptions
kcal/day
The intake assumed to maintain your starting weight. An estimate, not a measurement.
g/day
Before either plan begins. Determines initial glycogen equilibrium.
mg/day
Before either plan begins. Sodium changes influence water weight.
± %
Plan A shading reruns the model with this much lower and higher starting maintenance. Not a probability range.

03 / THE PROJECTION

A change you can follow

Plan APlan BA: ±10% starting expenditure
Scale weight: Plan A and Plan B over 180 daysSolid teal is Plan A. Dashed amber is Plan B. Shading shows Plan A under alternative starting expenditure assumptions, not a confidence interval. Use the day slider below or the results table for values.lb166.3175.4184.5193.6202.7Day 0Day 45Day 90Day 135Day 180
2027-03-19Drag to explore, or focus the slider and use the arrow keys.
PLAN A · DAY 180180.1 lb
-18.3 lb scale change
Fat change
-11.9 lb
Body fat
26.5%
Energy used
2,446 kcal/day
PLAN B · DAY 180198.5 lb
+0.1 lb scale change
Fat change
+0.0 lb
Body fat
30.0%
Energy used
2,699 kcal/day

Shading explores uncertainty in one starting assumption. It does not capture all biological or food-tracking uncertainty, and is not a clinical confidence interval.

INSIDE PLAN A · DAY 180

What moved the scale?

Body fat-11.9 lb
Other lean tissue-5.1 lb
Glycogen-0.2 lb
Water shift-1.2 lb
Scale-weight change-18.3 lb

Other lean tissue includes protein and associated water; it is not a measurement of muscle. Water shift is the additional change from glycogen hydration and extracellular fluid.

INSIDE PLAN A · DAY 180

The energy balance

Food energy2,200 kcal
Energy used2,446 kcal
Net for this day-246 kcal

Negative: energy came from body stores. Positive: energy entered body stores. The mix of fat, lean tissue, and glycogen changes over time.

Modeled metabolic adaptation-70 kcal/dayRelative to baseline, in addition to the effect of changing body size. This is a model assumption, not a measured metabolism.
Read the numbers · weekly table
End-of-day projections; masses in lb. CSV includes every day in kilograms.
DayA weightA fat changeB weightB fat change
0198.40.0198.40.0
7196.3-0.6198.4+0.0
14195.4-1.2198.4+0.0
21194.6-1.7198.4+0.0
28193.9-2.3198.4+0.0
35193.2-2.8198.4+0.0
42192.4-3.3198.4+0.0
49191.7-3.8198.4+0.0
56191.0-4.3198.4+0.0
63190.3-4.8198.4+0.0
70189.6-5.3198.4+0.0
77189.0-5.7198.4+0.0
84188.3-6.2198.4+0.0
91187.7-6.7198.5+0.0
98187.0-7.1198.5+0.0
105186.4-7.6198.5+0.0
112185.8-8.0198.5+0.0
119185.1-8.4198.5+0.0
126184.5-8.8198.5+0.0
133183.9-9.3198.5+0.0
140183.3-9.7198.5+0.0
147182.7-10.1198.5+0.0
154182.2-10.5198.5+0.0
161181.6-10.8198.5+0.0
168181.0-11.2198.5+0.0
175180.5-11.6198.5+0.0
180180.1-11.9198.5+0.0

04 / UNDER THE SURFACE

Every projection has assumptions.
These are ours.

01

A body that responds

This implements the reduced dynamic model in Hall et al. (2011), appendix equations 1–9. Fat and lean tissue change with energy balance. Glycogen responds to carbohydrate intake, and fluid responds to carbohydrate and sodium changes. Energy expenditure responds to body size, food intake, activity, and modeled adaptation.

Calculations run in daily scenarios, with smaller numerical steps inside each day. The lean-tissue compartment includes baseline fluid; additional fluid changes are tracked separately.

02

What the model can’t know

Starting weight is assumed stable, with 500 g of glycogen. Maintenance is estimated from the Mifflin–St Jeor resting-energy equation and your activity factor, unless you enter it. Body-fat percentage is an input estimate.

Protein and fat contribute calories; this reduced model does not simulate protein-specific muscle retention, strength-training hypertrophy, hunger, adherence, medication, illness, meal timing, or gut contents. It cannot predict an exact personal outcome. Intake limits are modeling boundaries, not nutrition targets.

03

Evidence, not a guarantee

The original research model was compared with human feeding studies. Our implementation has numerical and interaction checks; it has not been independently clinically validated. Use it to explore assumptions, not to prescribe a diet.

Inputs stay in this browser. Saving is optional and uses this device’s browser storage; there is no account or server-side storage for this simulator.

hall-2011-ras-1.0 · A Rough at Sea exploration · Numerical estimates, displayed to one decimal place.